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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +31.40 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 11AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%52.8% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY13.6%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+31.40 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN1.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 29, 03:11 PMJul 29, 03:23 PMJul 29, 03:35 PMJul 29, 03:47 PMJul 29, 03:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T15:11:49.592Z57.5%0.2%-57.3 pp
2026-07-29T15:18:22.078Z58.0%0.1%-57.9 pp
2026-07-29T15:21:56.770Z45.5%0.0%-45.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:27:15.578Z48.5%0.0%-48.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:30:16.388Z48.5%0.0%-48.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:41:18.479Z59.5%0.0%-59.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:43:18.003Z31.5%0.0%-31.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:47:10.820Z15.0%0.0%-15.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:49:15.117Z15.0%0.0%-15.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:51:34.973Z20.5%0.0%-20.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:59:42.434Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:59:59.629Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 13.6% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 52.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 31.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 5.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.8%, gross edge 34.4%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 31.4%. Marx fair UP is 13.6%.

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +31.40 pp Edge | AntiPredict