VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +31.40 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 11AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 29, 03:00 PMJul 29, 03:16 PMJul 29, 03:31 PMJul 29, 03:47 PMJul 29, 04:03 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T15:51:05.468Z | 20.5% | 15.0% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:51:13.683Z | 15.0% | 15.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:51:32.816Z | 20.5% | 0.0% | -20.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:51:34.973Z | 20.5% | 0.0% | -20.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:51:42.312Z | 20.5% | 0.0% | -20.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:52:42.080Z | 20.5% | 20.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:52:54.695Z | 20.5% | 20.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:53:41.961Z | 20.5% | 0.0% | -20.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:54:21.306Z | 20.5% | 0.0% | -20.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:54:22.898Z | 20.5% | 0.0% | -20.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:54:42.262Z | 20.5% | 0.0% | -20.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:55:42.202Z | 0.5% | 20.5% | +20.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:55:51.411Z | 20.5% | 20.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:56:16.246Z | 20.5% | 0.0% | -20.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:56:27.488Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:56:45.140Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:56:48.901Z | 21.5% | 0.0% | -21.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:57:00.974Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:57:41.942Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:57:52.785Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:58:21.284Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:58:24.347Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:58:48.073Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:59:42.434Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:59:59.629Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:00:42.040Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:01:18.953Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:01:42.104Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:02:45.633Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:03:03.890Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 13.6% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 52.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 31.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 5.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.8%, gross edge 34.4%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 31.4%. Marx fair UP is 13.6%.