VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +44.42 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 6AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 29, 10:00 AMJul 29, 10:16 AMJul 29, 10:31 AMJul 29, 10:47 AMJul 29, 11:03 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T10:45:41.776Z | 12.5% | 20.5% | +8.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:45:57.793Z | 20.5% | 20.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:46:11.431Z | 20.5% | 100.0% | +79.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:47:51.236Z | 20.5% | 20.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:47:57.358Z | 12.5% | 12.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:48:07.659Z | 12.5% | 100.0% | +87.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:48:48.777Z | 12.5% | 100.0% | +87.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:50:34.359Z | 4.5% | 1.5% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:50:45.028Z | 4.5% | 1.5% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:51:41.847Z | 0.6% | 1.5% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:52:06.917Z | 1.5% | 1.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:53:15.191Z | 1.5% | 100.0% | +98.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:54:43.267Z | 0.6% | 1.5% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:54:52.313Z | 1.5% | 1.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:55:02.248Z | 0.6% | 0.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:55:13.686Z | 0.6% | 100.0% | +99.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:55:41.880Z | 0.3% | 100.0% | +99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:56:41.861Z | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:56:56.170Z | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:57:11.187Z | 0.3% | 100.0% | +99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:57:41.754Z | 0.3% | 100.0% | +99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:58:41.759Z | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:58:52.321Z | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:59:19.400Z | 0.3% | 100.0% | +99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:59:20.464Z | 0.3% | 100.0% | +99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:59:41.853Z | 0.3% | 100.0% | +99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T11:00:41.756Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T11:00:55.800Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T11:01:16.946Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T11:03:12.827Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 52.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 5.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 53.3%, gross edge 46.9%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.4%. Marx fair UP is 99.9%.