VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +44.42 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 6AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.3%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 29, 10:13 AMJul 29, 10:24 AMJul 29, 10:36 AMJul 29, 10:48 AMJul 29, 10:59 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T10:13:11.854Z | 42.5% | 100.0% | +57.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:15:18.265Z | 34.0% | 100.0% | +66.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:19:36.611Z | 36.0% | 100.0% | +64.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:34:14.979Z | 20.5% | 100.0% | +79.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:42:12.240Z | 11.5% | 100.0% | +88.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:59:20.464Z | 0.3% | 100.0% | +99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:59:41.853Z | 0.3% | 100.0% | +99.7 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 52.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 5.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 53.3%, gross edge 46.9%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.4%. Marx fair UP is 99.9%.