VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +32.30 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 2AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 29, 06:00 AMJul 29, 06:16 AMJul 29, 06:32 AMJul 29, 06:48 AMJul 29, 07:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T06:43:38.871Z | 96.5% | 96.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:43:45.066Z | 96.0% | 96.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:44:34.327Z | 96.0% | 100.0% | +4.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:44:40.443Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:44:44.739Z | 86.0% | 100.0% | +14.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:44:53.137Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:45:43.172Z | 96.5% | 96.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:45:49.990Z | 96.5% | 96.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:46:41.548Z | 96.5% | 96.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:46:43.756Z | 96.0% | 96.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:46:48.951Z | 96.5% | 96.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:47:09.028Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:47:42.265Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:48:40.194Z | 99.0% | 96.5% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:48:49.590Z | 96.5% | 96.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:49:12.290Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:49:41.312Z | 99.3% | 100.0% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:50:50.763Z | 99.0% | 99.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:51:12.642Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:52:51.383Z | 99.3% | 99.3% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:53:08.339Z | 99.3% | 100.0% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:53:39.034Z | 99.3% | 100.0% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:54:40.293Z | 99.4% | 99.3% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:54:49.876Z | 99.3% | 99.3% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:55:07.909Z | 99.3% | 100.0% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:56:45.531Z | 99.4% | 99.4% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:57:06.834Z | 99.4% | 100.0% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:59:59.832Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:02:12.046Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:04:49.771Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 88.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 53.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 32.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 5.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 54.0%, gross edge 38.2%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 35.0%. Marx fair UP is 91.2%.