Ethereum Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +32.30 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 2AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%53.6% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY88.1%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+32.30 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN78.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 29, 06:00 AMJul 29, 06:15 AMJul 29, 06:30 AMJul 29, 06:45 AMJul 29, 06:59 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T06:00:24.576Z46.5%99.8%+53.3 pp
2026-07-29T06:06:11.251Z41.5%99.7%+58.2 pp
2026-07-29T06:10:09.433Z38.5%99.8%+61.3 pp
2026-07-29T06:12:15.902Z38.5%99.9%+61.4 pp
2026-07-29T06:18:10.226Z38.5%100.0%+61.5 pp
2026-07-29T06:26:12.503Z48.5%100.0%+51.5 pp
2026-07-29T06:30:07.628Z48.5%100.0%+51.5 pp
2026-07-29T06:57:06.834Z99.4%100.0%+0.6 pp
2026-07-29T06:59:59.832Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 88.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 53.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 32.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 5.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 54.0%, gross edge 38.2%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 35.0%. Marx fair UP is 91.2%.