Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 1-Hour hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +44.15 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 9PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY47.5%53.6% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+44.15 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 29, 01:04 AMJul 29, 01:19 AMJul 29, 01:34 AMJul 29, 01:48 AMJul 29, 02:03 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T01:04:47.526Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-07-29T01:15:27.678Z20.5%100.0%+79.5 pp
2026-07-29T01:30:34.269Z45.0%100.0%+55.0 pp
2026-07-29T01:34:52.206Z32.5%100.0%+67.5 pp
2026-07-29T01:38:51.491Z27.0%100.0%+73.0 pp
2026-07-29T01:56:51.483Z0.4%100.0%+99.6 pp
2026-07-29T01:58:28.260Z0.4%100.0%+99.6 pp
2026-07-29T02:03:17.892Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 47.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 53.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.1 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 7.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 53.6%, gross edge 47.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.1%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.