VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +44.15 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 9PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 29, 01:00 AMJul 29, 01:16 AMJul 29, 01:31 AMJul 29, 01:47 AMJul 29, 02:03 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T01:43:41.683Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:44:38.661Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:44:43.849Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:44:47.203Z | 3.5% | 100.0% | +96.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:45:41.785Z | 3.5% | 100.0% | +96.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:46:39.067Z | 3.5% | 100.0% | +96.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:48:09.606Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:48:38.682Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:48:45.980Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:48:51.832Z | 3.5% | 100.0% | +96.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:49:41.045Z | 2.5% | 100.0% | +97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:50:40.722Z | 1.4% | 100.0% | +98.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:51:40.602Z | 0.7% | 0.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:52:45.189Z | 0.7% | 0.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:52:49.739Z | 0.7% | 100.0% | +99.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:52:49.845Z | 0.7% | 100.0% | +99.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:53:38.808Z | 0.7% | 100.0% | +99.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:54:38.768Z | 0.7% | 0.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:54:46.568Z | 0.7% | 0.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:54:50.669Z | 0.7% | 100.0% | +99.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:55:43.199Z | 0.4% | 100.0% | +99.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:56:38.688Z | 0.4% | 0.4% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:56:48.105Z | 0.4% | 0.4% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:56:51.483Z | 0.4% | 100.0% | +99.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:58:28.260Z | 0.4% | 100.0% | +99.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:00:06.407Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:00:42.979Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:01:20.950Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:01:29.700Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:03:17.892Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 47.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 53.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 7.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 53.6%, gross edge 47.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.1%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.