Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 1-Hour hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +59.55 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 5PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY63.5%38.2% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.1%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+59.55 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 28, 09:07 PMJul 28, 09:19 PMJul 28, 09:31 PMJul 28, 09:44 PMJul 28, 09:56 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T21:07:16.945Z60.5%0.5%-60.0 pp
2026-07-28T21:14:55.078Z69.5%0.3%-69.2 pp
2026-07-28T21:23:16.508Z63.5%0.1%-63.4 pp
2026-07-28T21:38:17.935Z64.5%0.0%-64.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:53:20.099Z97.5%0.0%-97.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:56:40.901Z100.0%0.0%-99.9 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 63.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 38.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 59.5 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 31.6%, gross edge 68.9%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 66.3%. Marx fair UP is 0.1%.