VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +59.55 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 5PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 28, 09:01 PMJul 28, 09:16 PMJul 28, 09:31 PMJul 28, 09:46 PMJul 28, 10:02 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T21:28:41.496Z | 66.5% | 0.1% | -66.4 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:33:43.517Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:34:41.780Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:35:41.311Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:36:40.841Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:37:44.707Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:38:17.935Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:38:42.131Z | 78.5% | 0.0% | -78.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:39:42.778Z | 78.5% | 0.0% | -78.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:40:40.620Z | 86.5% | 0.0% | -86.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:41:38.847Z | 86.5% | 0.0% | -86.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:42:47.712Z | 86.5% | 0.0% | -86.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:43:59.856Z | 93.5% | 0.0% | -93.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:44:41.682Z | 93.5% | 0.0% | -93.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:45:41.029Z | 94.0% | 0.0% | -94.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:46:39.925Z | 93.5% | 0.0% | -93.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:48:40.831Z | 97.5% | 0.0% | -97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:49:42.104Z | 97.5% | 0.0% | -97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:50:38.670Z | 97.5% | 0.0% | -97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:51:38.948Z | 97.5% | 0.0% | -97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:52:41.926Z | 97.5% | 0.0% | -97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:53:20.099Z | 97.5% | 0.0% | -97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:53:42.687Z | 99.4% | 0.0% | -99.3 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:54:42.415Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:55:40.607Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:56:40.901Z | 100.0% | 0.0% | -99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:00:58.188Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:01:03.848Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:01:14.997Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:02:01.609Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 63.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 38.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 59.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 31.6%, gross edge 68.9%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 66.3%. Marx fair UP is 0.1%.