VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +46.11 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 6PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 28, 10:00 PMJul 28, 10:16 PMJul 28, 10:32 PMJul 28, 10:48 PMJul 28, 11:03 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T22:19:10.007Z | 45.0% | 100.0% | +55.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:19:41.744Z | 45.0% | 100.0% | +55.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:20:41.095Z | 45.0% | 100.0% | +55.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:21:38.743Z | 38.5% | 100.0% | +61.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:22:44.344Z | 38.5% | 100.0% | +61.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:23:41.800Z | 38.5% | 100.0% | +61.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:24:41.564Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:25:40.708Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:26:40.847Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:27:48.226Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:29:05.566Z | 14.0% | 100.0% | +86.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:31:41.144Z | 14.0% | 100.0% | +86.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:32:02.813Z | 14.0% | 100.0% | +86.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:32:43.298Z | 14.0% | 100.0% | +86.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:33:42.084Z | 14.0% | 100.0% | +86.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:38:42.765Z | 3.0% | 100.0% | +97.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:41:39.003Z | 3.0% | 100.0% | +97.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:42:46.771Z | 3.0% | 100.0% | +97.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:43:59.763Z | 4.5% | 100.0% | +95.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:47:07.503Z | 4.5% | 100.0% | +95.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:49:05.475Z | 2.4% | 100.0% | +97.6 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:54:10.197Z | 0.2% | 100.0% | +99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:56:38.766Z | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:57:58.628Z | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:58:47.354Z | 0.3% | 0.1% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T22:59:46.086Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:01:38.718Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:02:29.699Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:02:46.103Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:03:40.607Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 4.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 48.4%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.1%. Marx fair UP is 99.4%.