VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +46.11 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 6PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY99.4%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+46.11 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-17.3%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 100.0%

Jul 28, 10:02 PMJul 28, 10:16 PMJul 28, 10:30 PMJul 28, 10:45 PMJul 28, 10:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T22:02:01.244Z	44.5%	100.0%	+55.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:17:02.674Z	52.5%	100.0%	+47.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:47:07.503Z	4.5%	100.0%	+95.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:59:46.086Z	0.1%	100.0%	+99.9 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 99.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.1 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 4.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 48.4%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.1%. Marx fair UP is 99.4%.