Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 1-Hour hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +43.26 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 4PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%54.4% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.1%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+43.26 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN75.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 28, 08:01 PMJul 28, 08:16 PMJul 28, 08:30 PMJul 28, 08:45 PMJul 28, 08:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T20:01:46.092Z46.5%0.2%-46.3 pp
2026-07-28T20:16:52.518Z46.0%0.0%-46.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:31:56.532Z21.5%0.0%-21.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:41:07.738Z10.0%0.0%-10.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:50:45.031Z3.5%0.0%-3.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:59:41.701Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 54.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 43.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 54.7%, gross edge 45.8%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 42.9%. Marx fair UP is 0.2%.