VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +43.26 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 4PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 28, 08:00 PMJul 28, 08:16 PMJul 28, 08:31 PMJul 28, 08:47 PMJul 28, 09:02 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T20:39:41.606Z | 20.5% | 0.0% | -20.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:40:41.850Z | 10.0% | 0.0% | -10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:41:07.738Z | 10.0% | 0.0% | -10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:41:39.018Z | 10.0% | 0.0% | -10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:42:50.259Z | 10.0% | 0.0% | -10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:43:43.526Z | 13.5% | 0.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:44:56.166Z | 13.5% | 0.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:45:42.836Z | 13.5% | 0.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:45:43.438Z | 9.5% | 0.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:45:52.505Z | 13.5% | 0.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:46:40.639Z | 13.5% | 0.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:47:47.056Z | 3.5% | 0.0% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:47:47.879Z | 9.5% | 0.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:47:52.337Z | 13.5% | 0.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:50:45.031Z | 3.5% | 0.0% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:51:43.863Z | 3.5% | 0.0% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:52:42.396Z | 0.7% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:53:41.751Z | 0.7% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:54:42.811Z | 0.7% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:55:43.918Z | 0.7% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:56:40.943Z | 0.7% | 0.1% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:58:01.786Z | 0.7% | 0.1% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:59:08.901Z | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:59:41.701Z | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:00:42.053Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:01:40.820Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:02:17.254Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:02:44.840Z | 0.1% | 0.8% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:02:48.168Z | 0.8% | 0.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:02:57.951Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 54.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 43.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 54.7%, gross edge 45.8%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 42.9%. Marx fair UP is 0.2%.