VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +44.22 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 3PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 28, 07:01 PMJul 28, 07:16 PMJul 28, 07:31 PMJul 28, 07:46 PMJul 28, 08:01 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T19:18:40.127Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:19:41.004Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:20:40.177Z | 65.0% | 0.0% | -65.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:21:40.449Z | 80.0% | 0.0% | -80.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:25:38.593Z | 80.0% | 0.0% | -80.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:26:40.719Z | 80.0% | 0.0% | -80.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:27:46.305Z | 80.0% | 0.0% | -80.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:28:43.799Z | 79.5% | 0.0% | -79.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:32:42.337Z | 79.5% | 0.0% | -79.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:33:30.817Z | 79.5% | 0.0% | -79.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:33:41.359Z | 79.5% | 0.0% | -79.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:34:42.048Z | 79.5% | 0.0% | -79.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:35:40.417Z | 95.0% | 0.0% | -95.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:36:40.529Z | 95.0% | 0.0% | -95.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:37:45.707Z | 95.0% | 0.0% | -95.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:38:42.827Z | 95.0% | 0.0% | -95.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:39:40.975Z | 95.0% | 0.0% | -95.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:40:39.781Z | 95.0% | 0.0% | -95.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:41:38.590Z | 95.0% | 0.0% | -95.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:46:39.894Z | 95.0% | 0.0% | -95.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:48:35.499Z | 95.0% | 0.0% | -95.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:51:41.607Z | 95.0% | 0.0% | -95.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:56:42.786Z | 95.0% | 100.0% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:58:01.105Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:59:51.720Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:00:48.546Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:01:01.006Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:01:43.881Z | 100.0% | 99.5% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:01:46.079Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:01:51.918Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 53.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 4.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.5%, gross edge 47.0%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.