Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 1-Hour hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +44.22 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 3PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%53.5% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+44.22 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 28, 07:03 PMJul 28, 07:17 PMJul 28, 07:31 PMJul 28, 07:45 PMJul 28, 07:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T19:03:26.699Z46.5%0.0%-46.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:18:30.623Z64.5%0.0%-64.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:33:30.817Z79.5%0.0%-79.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:48:35.499Z95.0%0.0%-95.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:59:51.720Z100.0%0.0%-99.9 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 53.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 4.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.5%, gross edge 47.0%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.