VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +42.79 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 12PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Jul 28, 04:01 PMJul 28, 04:16 PMJul 28, 04:32 PMJul 28, 04:47 PMJul 28, 05:03 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T16:37:39.010Z | 35.5% | 35.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:37:55.407Z | 35.5% | 0.0% | -35.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:39:35.014Z | 36.5% | 36.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:39:56.291Z | 36.5% | 0.0% | -36.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:40:25.933Z | 36.5% | 0.0% | -36.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:41:25.563Z | 36.5% | 36.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:41:39.348Z | 36.5% | 36.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:41:56.480Z | 36.5% | 0.0% | -36.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:42:33.430Z | 58.5% | 0.0% | -58.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:44:26.837Z | 58.5% | 0.0% | -58.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:45:26.073Z | 58.5% | 0.0% | -58.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:46:25.962Z | 58.5% | 0.0% | -58.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:47:28.674Z | 58.5% | 0.0% | -58.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:48:27.722Z | 67.5% | 0.0% | -67.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:49:25.690Z | 67.5% | 0.0% | -67.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:50:25.730Z | 68.5% | 0.0% | -68.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:51:25.805Z | 68.5% | 0.0% | -68.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:52:28.428Z | 68.5% | 0.0% | -68.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:53:25.545Z | 92.5% | 0.0% | -92.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:54:26.092Z | 92.5% | 0.0% | -92.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:55:25.940Z | 92.5% | 0.0% | -92.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:56:26.117Z | 92.5% | 0.0% | -92.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:57:00.148Z | 92.5% | 0.0% | -92.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:57:34.107Z | 92.5% | 0.0% | -92.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:58:26.113Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:59:59.570Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:00:25.963Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:01:36.199Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:02:02.461Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:03:24.627Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 54.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 42.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 54.7%, gross edge 45.8%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 42.9%. Marx fair UP is 0.2%.