Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 1-Hour hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +42.79 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 12PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%54.7% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.3%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+42.79 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 28, 04:03 PMJul 28, 04:17 PMJul 28, 04:31 PMJul 28, 04:45 PMJul 28, 04:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T16:03:43.399Z46.5%0.2%-46.3 pp
2026-07-28T16:07:45.530Z46.5%0.2%-46.3 pp
2026-07-28T16:11:45.057Z42.0%0.0%-42.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:20:45.136Z32.5%0.4%-32.1 pp
2026-07-28T16:24:45.184Z55.5%0.0%-55.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:26:46.325Z55.5%0.0%-55.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:33:56.837Z38.5%0.0%-38.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:37:55.407Z35.5%0.0%-35.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:39:56.291Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:41:56.480Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:57:00.148Z92.5%0.0%-92.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:59:59.570Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 54.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 42.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 54.7%, gross edge 45.8%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 42.9%. Marx fair UP is 0.2%.