VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 2AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+46.75 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%

Jul 28, 06:03 AMJul 28, 06:18 AMJul 28, 06:33 AMJul 28, 06:48 AMJul 28, 07:03 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T06:03:44.619Z	46.5%	0.0%	-46.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:07:42.260Z	45.5%	0.0%	-45.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:16:45.644Z	22.5%	0.0%	-22.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:41:50.521Z	76.0%	0.0%	-76.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:59:30.841Z	100.0%	0.0%	-99.9 pp
2026-07-28T06:59:52.186Z	99.9%	0.0%	-99.8 pp
2026-07-28T07:03:42.848Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.1%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 1.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.6%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.