VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 2AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 28, 06:01 AMJul 28, 06:17 AMJul 28, 06:33 AMJul 28, 06:48 AMJul 28, 07:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T06:47:30.864Z | 88.5% | 88.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:47:34.465Z | 88.5% | 88.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:47:50.681Z | 88.5% | 0.0% | -88.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:47:51.427Z | 88.5% | 0.0% | -88.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:48:30.950Z | 88.5% | 0.0% | -88.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:49:30.889Z | 91.5% | 0.0% | -91.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:51:31.137Z | 91.5% | 91.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:51:39.709Z | 91.5% | 91.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:51:47.044Z | 91.5% | 0.0% | -91.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:52:33.715Z | 91.5% | 0.0% | -91.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:53:33.456Z | 97.5% | 88.5% | -9.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:53:35.547Z | 88.5% | 88.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:53:45.517Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:53:47.645Z | 97.5% | 0.0% | -97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:54:30.913Z | 97.5% | 0.0% | -97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:55:30.804Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:55:34.489Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:55:54.770Z | 97.5% | 0.0% | -97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:56:30.881Z | 97.5% | 0.0% | -97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:57:30.905Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:57:42.332Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:57:50.353Z | 97.5% | 0.0% | -97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:58:30.819Z | 99.9% | 0.0% | -99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:59:30.841Z | 100.0% | 99.8% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:59:39.532Z | 99.9% | 99.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:59:51.794Z | 99.9% | 0.0% | -99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T06:59:52.186Z | 99.9% | 0.0% | -99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:01:39.163Z | 99.9% | 99.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:03:42.848Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:04:30.795Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.1%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 1.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.6%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.