Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 1-Hour hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +61.89 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 9PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY46.5%36.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+61.89 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN165.9%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 4.0%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 28, 01:01 AMJul 28, 01:16 AMJul 28, 01:30 AMJul 28, 01:45 AMJul 28, 01:59 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T01:01:49.446Z54.5%0.0%-54.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:07:49.619Z55.5%0.0%-55.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:09:59.946Z20.5%0.0%-20.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:15:54.828Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:19:49.571Z28.5%0.0%-28.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:21:50.481Z28.5%0.0%-28.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:25:51.912Z31.5%0.0%-31.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:27:51.474Z31.5%0.0%-31.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:33:49.617Z46.5%0.0%-46.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:43:51.065Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:51:54.507Z55.5%0.0%-55.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:59:30.764Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:59:53.666Z4.0%0.0%-4.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 46.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 36.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 61.9 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 36.0%, gross edge 64.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 61.9%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.