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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +61.89 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 9PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY46.5%36.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+61.89 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN165.9%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 01:01 AMJul 28, 01:17 AMJul 28, 01:33 AMJul 28, 01:48 AMJul 28, 02:04 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T01:49:39.535Z35.0%35.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:49:55.902Z35.0%0.0%-35.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:51:30.779Z55.5%55.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:51:39.381Z55.5%55.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:51:54.507Z55.5%0.0%-55.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:51:55.211Z55.5%0.0%-55.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:52:32.588Z55.5%0.0%-55.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:53:33.672Z28.5%28.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:53:45.221Z28.5%28.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:53:51.802Z28.5%0.0%-28.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:54:30.814Z28.5%0.0%-28.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:55:30.840Z16.5%16.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:55:39.659Z16.5%16.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:55:55.773Z16.5%0.0%-16.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:55:56.187Z16.5%0.0%-16.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:56:30.826Z16.5%0.0%-16.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:57:30.775Z6.0%6.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:57:35.122Z6.0%6.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:57:51.956Z6.0%0.0%-6.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:58:30.781Z6.0%0.0%-6.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:59:30.764Z0.5%6.0%+5.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:59:39.439Z6.0%6.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:59:44.188Z4.0%4.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:59:53.666Z4.0%0.0%-4.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:01:30.749Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:01:54.578Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:02:31.025Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:03:30.823Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:03:45.128Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:04:32.267Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 46.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 36.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 61.9 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 36.0%, gross edge 64.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 61.9%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +61.89 pp Edge | AntiPredict