Ethereum Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +14.15 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 8PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.8% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY31.8%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+14.15 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN80.9%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 28, 12:03 AMJul 28, 12:18 AMJul 28, 12:33 AMJul 28, 12:48 AMJul 28, 01:03 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T00:03:50.885Z54.5%0.0%-54.5 pp
2026-07-28T00:05:55.622Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T00:09:52.846Z31.5%0.0%-31.5 pp
2026-07-28T00:13:49.455Z25.5%0.0%-25.5 pp
2026-07-28T00:15:51.735Z23.5%0.0%-23.5 pp
2026-07-28T00:17:49.947Z23.5%0.0%-23.5 pp
2026-07-28T00:21:53.917Z34.5%0.0%-34.5 pp
2026-07-28T00:23:49.969Z30.0%0.0%-30.0 pp
2026-07-28T00:27:50.431Z15.5%0.0%-15.5 pp
2026-07-28T00:29:49.655Z15.5%0.0%-15.5 pp
2026-07-28T00:31:49.757Z14.0%0.0%-14.0 pp
2026-07-28T00:35:52.898Z18.5%0.0%-18.5 pp
2026-07-28T00:43:49.709Z14.5%0.0%-14.5 pp
2026-07-28T00:59:30.845Z0.4%0.0%-0.4 pp
2026-07-28T00:59:50.488Z0.4%0.0%-0.4 pp
2026-07-28T01:03:49.686Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 31.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 14.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.8%, gross edge 16.9%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 13.8%. Marx fair UP is 32.1%.