VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +14.15 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 8PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 28, 12:00 AMJul 28, 12:16 AMJul 28, 12:32 AMJul 28, 12:47 AMJul 28, 01:03 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T00:45:51.915Z | 10.0% | 0.0% | -10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:46:30.749Z | 1.5% | 0.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:47:35.108Z | 10.0% | 10.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:47:51.932Z | 10.0% | 0.0% | -10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:49:39.503Z | 10.0% | 10.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:49:50.137Z | 10.0% | 0.0% | -10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:50:34.770Z | 1.5% | 0.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:51:30.734Z | 0.3% | 1.5% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:51:34.643Z | 1.5% | 1.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:51:50.042Z | 1.5% | 0.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:53:40.961Z | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:53:50.207Z | 0.3% | 0.0% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:54:32.297Z | 0.3% | 0.0% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:55:30.767Z | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:55:34.532Z | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:55:51.928Z | 0.3% | 0.0% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:56:30.844Z | 0.4% | 0.0% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:57:39.833Z | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:57:50.917Z | 0.3% | 0.0% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:59:30.845Z | 0.4% | 0.4% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:59:39.149Z | 0.4% | 0.4% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:59:50.488Z | 0.4% | 0.0% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:00:30.931Z | 0.4% | 0.0% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:01:30.845Z | 0.4% | 0.4% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:01:34.507Z | 0.4% | 0.4% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:02:32.310Z | 0.4% | 0.4% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:03:33.667Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:03:34.361Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:03:39.298Z | 0.4% | 0.4% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:03:49.686Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 31.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 14.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.8%, gross edge 16.9%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 13.8%. Marx fair UP is 32.1%.