VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +71.59 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 4PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 27, 08:15 PMJul 27, 08:27 PMJul 27, 08:39 PMJul 27, 08:52 PMJul 27, 09:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T20:15:00.248Z | 34.5% | 100.0% | +65.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:16:58.617Z | 34.5% | 100.0% | +65.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:28:55.233Z | 23.5% | 100.0% | +76.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:31:01.079Z | 42.0% | 100.0% | +58.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:32:56.287Z | 42.0% | 100.0% | +58.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:36:57.593Z | 37.5% | 100.0% | +62.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:46:56.861Z | 14.0% | 100.0% | +86.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:58:54.700Z | 5.5% | 100.0% | +94.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:59:30.921Z | 5.5% | 100.0% | +94.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:04:40.785Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 34.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 26.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 71.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 26.5%, gross edge 74.0%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 71.6%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.