VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +71.59 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 4PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 27, 08:00 PMJul 27, 08:16 PMJul 27, 08:32 PMJul 27, 08:48 PMJul 27, 09:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T20:48:54.485Z | 16.0% | 16.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:48:58.933Z | 16.0% | 100.0% | +84.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:49:30.750Z | 16.0% | 100.0% | +84.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:50:30.744Z | 16.0% | 16.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:50:39.203Z | 16.0% | 16.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:51:00.128Z | 16.0% | 100.0% | +84.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:51:00.788Z | 16.0% | 100.0% | +84.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:51:31.984Z | 17.0% | 100.0% | +83.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:52:37.616Z | 16.0% | 16.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:52:57.128Z | 16.0% | 100.0% | +84.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:54:30.765Z | 17.0% | 17.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:54:34.535Z | 17.0% | 17.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:55:00.930Z | 17.0% | 100.0% | +83.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:55:30.789Z | 17.0% | 100.0% | +83.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:56:32.004Z | 17.0% | 17.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:56:43.706Z | 17.0% | 17.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:56:55.638Z | 17.0% | 100.0% | +83.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:57:30.797Z | 17.0% | 100.0% | +83.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:58:30.720Z | 5.5% | 17.0% | +11.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:58:39.442Z | 17.0% | 17.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:58:44.831Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:58:54.700Z | 5.5% | 100.0% | +94.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:59:30.921Z | 5.5% | 100.0% | +94.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:00:30.759Z | 2.5% | 5.5% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:00:34.441Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:00:39.626Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:01:00.316Z | 2.5% | 100.0% | +97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:01:30.793Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:02:38.810Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:04:40.785Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 34.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 26.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 71.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 26.5%, gross edge 74.0%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 71.6%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.