VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +20.93 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 1PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 27, 05:00 PMJul 27, 05:16 PMJul 27, 05:32 PMJul 27, 05:48 PMJul 27, 06:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T17:48:59.168Z | 64.0% | 100.0% | +36.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:49:30.834Z | 64.0% | 100.0% | +36.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:50:30.709Z | 57.0% | 72.0% | +15.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:50:39.601Z | 72.0% | 72.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:50:48.920Z | 57.0% | 57.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:51:00.694Z | 57.0% | 100.0% | +43.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:51:30.795Z | 64.0% | 100.0% | +36.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:52:33.416Z | 64.0% | 64.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:52:38.848Z | 64.0% | 64.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:52:59.749Z | 64.0% | 100.0% | +36.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:53:30.780Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:54:34.304Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:54:39.332Z | 57.5% | 57.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:54:59.036Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:55:30.774Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:56:30.857Z | 57.5% | 57.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:56:38.946Z | 57.5% | 57.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:57:00.680Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:57:30.821Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:58:30.851Z | 100.0% | 97.5% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:58:39.268Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:59:03.244Z | 97.5% | 100.0% | +2.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:59:03.828Z | 97.5% | 100.0% | +2.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T18:00:39.759Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T18:01:04.241Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T18:01:30.854Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T18:02:30.793Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T18:02:34.074Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T18:03:30.748Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T18:04:39.498Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 57.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 77.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 20.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 77.3%, gross edge 24.0%, slippage 1.3%, fee 1.2%, safety 0.5%, net edge 20.9%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.