VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +20.93 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 1PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 27, 05:01 PMJul 27, 05:16 PMJul 27, 05:32 PMJul 27, 05:48 PMJul 27, 06:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T17:01:04.841Z | 49.0% | 100.0% | +51.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:08:59.078Z | 34.5% | 100.0% | +65.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:11:01.672Z | 38.0% | 100.0% | +62.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:15:01.601Z | 41.5% | 100.0% | +58.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:17:03.192Z | 41.5% | 100.0% | +58.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:23:00.338Z | 48.5% | 100.0% | +51.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:25:23.867Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:31:01.707Z | 61.5% | 100.0% | +38.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:35:00.152Z | 61.5% | 100.0% | +38.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:42:59.640Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:45:00.270Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:46:59.575Z | 72.0% | 100.0% | +28.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:51:00.694Z | 57.0% | 100.0% | +43.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:52:59.749Z | 64.0% | 100.0% | +36.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:54:59.036Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:58:30.851Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:59:03.828Z | 97.5% | 100.0% | +2.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T18:04:39.498Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 57.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 77.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 20.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 77.3%, gross edge 24.0%, slippage 1.3%, fee 1.2%, safety 0.5%, net edge 20.9%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.