Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +35.71 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%49.4% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY87.4%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+35.71 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 08, 09:51 AMAug 08, 09:54 AMAug 08, 09:57 AMAug 08, 09:59 AMAug 08, 10:02 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-08T09:51:48.213Z30.5%95.4%+64.9 pp
2026-08-08T09:58:51.694Z11.5%99.9%+88.4 pp
2026-08-08T09:59:16.060Z11.5%99.9%+88.4 pp
2026-08-08T10:02:40.799Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 87.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 49.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 35.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 49.4%, gross edge 39.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 36.3%. Marx fair UP is 88.0%.