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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +35.71 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%49.4% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY87.4%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+35.71 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 08, 09:45 AMAug 08, 09:49 AMAug 08, 09:53 AMAug 08, 09:58 AMAug 08, 10:02 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-08T09:47:14.658Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T09:47:27.704Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T09:47:58.047Z58.5%95.4%+36.9 pp
2026-08-08T09:47:58.885Z58.5%95.4%+36.9 pp
2026-08-08T09:48:14.208Z58.5%95.4%+36.9 pp
2026-08-08T09:49:12.470Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T09:49:29.740Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T09:49:46.986Z58.5%95.2%+36.7 pp
2026-08-08T09:49:47.546Z58.5%95.2%+36.7 pp
2026-08-08T09:50:12.948Z58.5%95.2%+36.7 pp
2026-08-08T09:51:12.256Z30.5%30.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T09:51:30.806Z30.5%30.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T09:51:48.213Z30.5%95.4%+64.9 pp
2026-08-08T09:52:14.563Z30.5%95.4%+64.9 pp
2026-08-08T09:53:13.268Z30.5%30.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T09:53:25.307Z30.5%30.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T09:53:40.548Z30.5%96.4%+65.9 pp
2026-08-08T09:54:19.544Z30.5%96.4%+65.9 pp
2026-08-08T09:55:11.341Z21.5%21.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-08T09:55:22.587Z21.5%21.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-08T09:55:48.363Z21.5%98.4%+76.9 pp
2026-08-08T09:57:11.962Z11.5%11.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-08T09:57:28.616Z11.5%11.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-08T09:58:13.562Z11.5%99.9%+88.4 pp
2026-08-08T09:58:51.694Z11.5%99.9%+88.4 pp
2026-08-08T09:59:16.060Z11.5%99.9%+88.4 pp
2026-08-08T10:00:11.206Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T10:00:31.223Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T10:00:47.943Z0.1%100.0%+99.9 pp
2026-08-08T10:02:40.799Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 87.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 49.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 35.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 49.4%, gross edge 39.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 36.3%. Marx fair UP is 88.0%.

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +35.71 pp Edge | AntiPredict