VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +33.55 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Aug 07, 09:00 PMAug 07, 09:04 PMAug 07, 09:09 PMAug 07, 09:13 PMAug 07, 09:17 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T21:02:21.607Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:02:43.427Z | 53.5% | 94.0% | +40.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:03:10.616Z | 53.5% | 94.0% | +40.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:04:10.726Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:04:26.275Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:04:40.254Z | 53.5% | 94.0% | +40.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:05:11.002Z | 32.5% | 94.0% | +61.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:06:12.174Z | 32.5% | 34.5% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:06:24.195Z | 34.5% | 34.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:06:33.541Z | 32.5% | 32.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:06:47.759Z | 32.5% | 94.9% | +62.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:06:48.549Z | 32.5% | 94.9% | +62.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:07:10.614Z | 32.5% | 94.9% | +62.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:08:11.163Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:08:23.404Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:08:42.392Z | 40.5% | 97.1% | +56.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:08:43.234Z | 40.5% | 97.1% | +56.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:09:19.097Z | 41.5% | 97.1% | +55.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:10:10.675Z | 23.5% | 23.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:10:30.633Z | 23.5% | 23.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:10:48.186Z | 23.5% | 98.7% | +75.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:11:15.417Z | 23.5% | 98.7% | +75.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:13:57.747Z | 25.5% | 25.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:14:10.575Z | 25.5% | 25.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:14:15.410Z | 25.5% | 25.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:15:10.816Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:15:26.578Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:15:38.255Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:16:10.632Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:17:30.492Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 87.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 33.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.8%, gross edge 39.0%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 36.0%. Marx fair UP is 90.0%.