Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +33.55 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY51.5%51.6% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY87.4%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+33.55 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 09:02 PMAug 07, 09:06 PMAug 07, 09:10 PMAug 07, 09:13 PMAug 07, 09:17 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T21:02:43.427Z53.5%94.0%+40.5 pp
2026-08-07T21:08:43.234Z40.5%97.1%+56.6 pp
2026-08-07T21:17:30.492Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 87.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 33.5 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.8%, gross edge 39.0%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 36.0%. Marx fair UP is 90.0%.