VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +12.69 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 07, 08:31 PMAug 07, 08:35 PMAug 07, 08:39 PMAug 07, 08:43 PMAug 07, 08:47 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T20:31:26.594Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:31:40.670Z | 48.5% | 99.0% | +50.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:33:10.658Z | 21.0% | 21.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:33:21.657Z | 21.0% | 21.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:33:42.485Z | 21.0% | 99.3% | +78.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:34:11.195Z | 21.0% | 99.3% | +78.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:35:10.765Z | 21.0% | 21.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:35:26.773Z | 21.0% | 21.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:35:40.196Z | 21.0% | 99.5% | +78.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:36:10.897Z | 21.0% | 99.5% | +78.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:37:10.877Z | 7.5% | 21.0% | +13.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:37:30.884Z | 21.0% | 21.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:37:48.382Z | 21.0% | 99.8% | +78.8 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:37:49.386Z | 21.0% | 99.8% | +78.8 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:39:27.492Z | 22.5% | 22.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:39:45.313Z | 22.5% | 100.0% | +77.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:39:47.046Z | 22.5% | 100.0% | +77.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:40:16.042Z | 22.5% | 100.0% | +77.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:41:37.485Z | 22.5% | 22.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:42:01.246Z | 22.5% | 100.0% | +77.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:44:05.766Z | 22.5% | 0.5% | -22.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:44:16.081Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:44:29.884Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:45:10.887Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:46:10.748Z | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:47:10.695Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T20:47:26.031Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 65.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 12.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 14.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 12.7%. Marx fair UP is 65.9%.