Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +12.69 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY65.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+12.69 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.4%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 08:39 PMAug 07, 08:41 PMAug 07, 08:43 PMAug 07, 08:45 PMAug 07, 08:47 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T20:39:45.313Z22.5%100.0%+77.5 pp
2026-08-07T20:42:01.246Z22.5%100.0%+77.5 pp
2026-08-07T20:47:26.031Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 65.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 12.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 14.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 12.7%. Marx fair UP is 65.9%.