VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +6.08 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 40.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 9.1%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.9%. Marx fair UP is 39.9%.