Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +24.59 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY57.5%73.5% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+24.59 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 10:45 AMAug 07, 10:49 AMAug 07, 10:54 AMAug 07, 10:58 AMAug 07, 11:03 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T10:47:43.923Z57.5%100.0%+42.5 pp
2026-08-07T10:48:10.318Z57.5%100.0%+42.5 pp
2026-08-07T10:49:10.299Z71.5%71.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T10:49:20.954Z71.5%71.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T10:49:35.732Z71.5%100.0%+28.5 pp
2026-08-07T10:50:10.301Z61.5%100.0%+38.5 pp
2026-08-07T10:51:12.681Z61.5%61.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T10:51:24.189Z61.5%61.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T10:51:39.098Z61.5%100.0%+38.5 pp
2026-08-07T10:51:40.398Z61.5%100.0%+38.5 pp
2026-08-07T10:52:13.059Z68.5%100.0%+31.5 pp
2026-08-07T10:53:10.442Z68.5%68.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T10:53:20.225Z68.5%68.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T10:53:42.358Z68.5%100.0%+31.5 pp
2026-08-07T10:54:19.247Z68.5%100.0%+31.5 pp
2026-08-07T10:55:10.542Z68.5%46.5%-22.0 pp
2026-08-07T10:55:29.415Z46.5%46.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T10:55:41.859Z68.5%100.0%+31.5 pp
2026-08-07T10:56:10.896Z68.5%100.0%+31.5 pp
2026-08-07T10:58:11.849Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T10:58:33.085Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T10:59:11.292Z0.5%41.5%+41.0 pp
2026-08-07T10:59:15.228Z41.5%41.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T10:59:24.542Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T10:59:44.816Z26.5%100.0%+73.5 pp
2026-08-07T11:00:17.274Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-08-07T11:01:10.294Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T11:01:29.155Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T11:02:12.737Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T11:03:10.270Z0.5%0.1%-0.4 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 57.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 73.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 24.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 73.4%, gross edge 27.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 24.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +24.59 pp Edge | AntiPredict