Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +24.59 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY57.5%73.5% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+24.59 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 26.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 10:49 AMAug 07, 10:52 AMAug 07, 10:54 AMAug 07, 10:57 AMAug 07, 10:59 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T10:49:35.732Z71.5%100.0%+28.5 pp
2026-08-07T10:53:42.358Z68.5%100.0%+31.5 pp
2026-08-07T10:59:11.292Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-08-07T10:59:44.816Z26.5%100.0%+73.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 57.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 73.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 24.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 73.4%, gross edge 27.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 24.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.