Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +35.24 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY52.5%62.6% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+35.24 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN55.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 17.5%Marx Fair UP 17.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Aug 06, 08:02 PMAug 06, 08:06 PMAug 06, 08:10 PMAug 06, 08:13 PMAug 06, 08:17 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T20:02:42.396Z45.5%0.2%-45.3 pp
2026-08-06T20:10:41.226Z52.5%0.0%-52.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:17:36.837Z17.5%17.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 52.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 62.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 35.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 62.6%, gross edge 40.0%, slippage 2.6%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 35.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.