VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +35.24 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 17.5%Marx Fair UP 17.5%
Aug 06, 08:00 PMAug 06, 08:04 PMAug 06, 08:09 PMAug 06, 08:13 PMAug 06, 08:17 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T20:02:09.994Z | 45.5% | 45.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:02:21.010Z | 45.5% | 45.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:02:41.414Z | 45.5% | 0.2% | -45.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:02:42.396Z | 45.5% | 0.2% | -45.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:03:12.171Z | 58.5% | 0.2% | -58.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:04:24.880Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:04:47.467Z | 49.5% | 0.2% | -49.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:05:10.432Z | 58.5% | 0.2% | -58.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:06:10.228Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:06:30.800Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:06:36.389Z | 58.5% | 0.2% | -58.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:07:09.919Z | 50.5% | 0.2% | -50.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:08:12.005Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:08:22.161Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:08:33.630Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:09:18.487Z | 52.5% | 0.0% | -52.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:10:17.490Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:10:18.869Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:10:41.226Z | 52.5% | 0.0% | -52.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:11:10.721Z | 52.5% | 0.0% | -52.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:12:30.582Z | 23.5% | 0.0% | -23.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:13:11.102Z | 23.5% | 23.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:14:15.123Z | 23.5% | 23.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:14:27.652Z | 23.5% | 23.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:15:10.191Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:15:21.572Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:15:38.044Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:16:09.939Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:17:10.017Z | 17.5% | 17.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T20:17:36.837Z | 17.5% | 17.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 52.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 62.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 35.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 62.6%, gross edge 40.0%, slippage 2.6%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 35.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.