Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +50.21 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%46.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY1.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+50.21 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 53.5%Marx Fair UP 53.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Aug 06, 06:46 PMAug 06, 06:50 PMAug 06, 06:54 PMAug 06, 06:59 PMAug 06, 07:03 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T18:46:40.422Z52.5%1.1%-51.4 pp
2026-08-06T18:48:32.574Z52.5%1.1%-51.4 pp
2026-08-06T18:52:42.047Z62.5%0.0%-62.5 pp
2026-08-06T18:54:36.176Z30.5%0.0%-30.5 pp
2026-08-06T18:59:09.776Z53.5%53.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T18:59:25.095Z53.5%53.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T19:03:17.955Z53.5%53.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 1.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 46.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 50.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 46.0%, gross edge 52.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 50.2%. Marx fair UP is 1.5%.