VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +50.21 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 87.5%Marx Fair UP 53.5%
Aug 06, 06:45 PMAug 06, 06:49 PMAug 06, 06:54 PMAug 06, 06:59 PMAug 06, 07:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T18:48:23.257Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:48:32.574Z | 52.5% | 1.1% | -51.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:49:09.876Z | 62.5% | 1.1% | -61.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:50:11.189Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:50:21.632Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:50:43.854Z | 62.5% | 0.1% | -62.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:50:44.732Z | 62.5% | 0.1% | -62.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:51:10.620Z | 62.5% | 0.1% | -62.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:52:10.104Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:52:27.912Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:52:42.047Z | 62.5% | 0.0% | -62.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:53:12.520Z | 62.5% | 0.0% | -62.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:54:17.396Z | 30.5% | 62.5% | +32.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:54:18.730Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:54:30.722Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:54:36.176Z | 30.5% | 0.0% | -30.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:55:10.760Z | 30.5% | 0.0% | -30.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:56:10.477Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:56:25.929Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:56:48.087Z | 30.5% | 0.0% | -30.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:57:11.081Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:59:09.776Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:59:25.095Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:00:14.986Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:01:00.118Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:01:09.956Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:02:10.645Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:03:09.911Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:03:17.955Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:04:15.244Z | 87.5% | 53.5% | -34.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 1.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 46.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 50.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 46.0%, gross edge 52.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 50.2%. Marx fair UP is 1.5%.