Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +7.18 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY60.4%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+7.18 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.4%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 06, 10:58 PMAug 06, 11:00 PMAug 06, 11:01 PMAug 06, 11:03 PMAug 06, 11:04 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T22:58:40.117Z96.5%45.0%-51.5 pp
2026-08-06T22:59:14.062Z96.5%45.0%-51.5 pp
2026-08-06T23:04:38.423Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 60.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 7.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 9.1%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.9%. Marx fair UP is 60.1%.