Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +38.81 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY48.5%59.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+38.81 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN64.8%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 05, 10:15 PMAug 05, 10:19 PMAug 05, 10:23 PMAug 05, 10:26 PMAug 05, 10:30 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T22:15:38.079Z48.5%100.0%+51.5 pp
2026-08-05T22:17:37.408Z48.5%100.0%+51.5 pp
2026-08-05T22:19:37.302Z64.5%100.0%+35.5 pp
2026-08-05T22:23:38.411Z64.5%100.0%+35.5 pp
2026-08-05T22:30:43.719Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 59.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 38.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 59.0%, gross edge 41.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 38.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.