VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +38.81 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 05, 10:15 PMAug 05, 10:19 PMAug 05, 10:24 PMAug 05, 10:29 PMAug 05, 10:34 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T22:17:09.607Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:17:21.297Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:17:37.408Z | 48.5% | 100.0% | +51.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:18:09.635Z | 48.5% | 100.0% | +51.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:19:09.299Z | 63.5% | 64.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:19:17.515Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:19:37.302Z | 64.5% | 100.0% | +35.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:21:10.304Z | 48.5% | 63.5% | +15.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:21:21.590Z | 63.5% | 63.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:21:37.290Z | 63.5% | 100.0% | +36.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:22:11.863Z | 48.5% | 100.0% | +51.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:23:09.462Z | 25.5% | 23.5% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:23:20.926Z | 23.5% | 23.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:23:38.411Z | 64.5% | 100.0% | +35.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:25:09.201Z | 35.5% | 35.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:25:30.245Z | 35.5% | 35.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:25:48.120Z | 35.5% | 100.0% | +64.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:26:09.690Z | 35.5% | 100.0% | +64.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:27:09.404Z | 35.5% | 35.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:27:21.203Z | 35.5% | 35.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:28:10.036Z | 35.5% | 100.0% | +64.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:28:48.899Z | 35.5% | 100.0% | +64.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:30:07.290Z | 26.5% | 100.0% | +73.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:30:17.033Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:30:25.912Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:30:43.719Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:31:09.607Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:32:10.786Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:33:09.802Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:34:09.379Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 59.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 38.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 59.0%, gross edge 41.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 38.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.