VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +26.09 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 05, 09:30 PMAug 05, 09:35 PMAug 05, 09:39 PMAug 05, 09:44 PMAug 05, 09:49 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T21:32:27.408Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:32:45.737Z | 56.5% | 100.0% | +43.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:33:09.315Z | 56.5% | 100.0% | +43.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:34:09.464Z | 38.5% | 38.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:34:20.339Z | 38.5% | 38.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:35:10.089Z | 27.5% | 27.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:35:22.245Z | 27.5% | 27.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:35:47.659Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:36:09.652Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:37:09.565Z | 27.5% | 27.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:37:21.556Z | 27.5% | 27.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:37:35.052Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:38:09.375Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:39:29.940Z | 27.5% | 27.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:39:30.330Z | 27.5% | 27.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:39:46.439Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:39:47.397Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:40:09.355Z | 12.5% | 100.0% | +87.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:41:16.606Z | 12.5% | 12.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:41:44.881Z | 12.5% | 12.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:41:57.793Z | 12.5% | 100.0% | +87.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:43:27.934Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:43:58.441Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:44:09.630Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:45:09.992Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:45:19.306Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:46:09.609Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:47:09.394Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:48:09.770Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:49:09.633Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 56.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 72.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 26.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 68.0%, gross edge 32.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 30.0%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.