VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +26.09 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY56.5%72.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+26.09 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%

Aug 05, 09:30 PMAug 05, 09:34 PMAug 05, 09:37 PMAug 05, 09:41 PMAug 05, 09:45 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-05T21:30:37.822Z	56.5%	100.0%	+43.5 pp
2026-08-05T21:45:19.306Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 56.5%.
The executable UP entry was 72.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 26.1 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 68.0%, gross edge 32.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 30.0%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.