Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +49.74 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%48.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+49.74 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 17.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 05, 05:23 PMAug 05, 05:23 PMAug 05, 05:23 PMAug 05, 05:23 PMAug 05, 05:23 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T17:23:41.474Z17.5%100.0%+82.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable UP entry was 48.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 49.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 48.0%, gross edge 52.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.