VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +49.74 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Aug 05, 05:15 PMAug 05, 05:20 PMAug 05, 05:24 PMAug 05, 05:29 PMAug 05, 05:34 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T17:15:25.198Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:16:19.881Z | 43.5% | 43.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:17:09.562Z | 43.5% | 100.0% | +56.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:17:37.496Z | 43.5% | 100.0% | +56.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:18:09.125Z | 37.5% | 100.0% | +62.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:19:09.680Z | 26.5% | 26.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:19:21.507Z | 26.5% | 26.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:19:41.436Z | 26.5% | 100.0% | +73.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:19:42.021Z | 26.5% | 100.0% | +73.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:20:09.674Z | 26.5% | 100.0% | +73.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:21:09.405Z | 26.5% | 26.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:21:25.918Z | 26.5% | 26.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:21:38.669Z | 26.5% | 100.0% | +73.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:22:15.092Z | 26.5% | 100.0% | +73.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:23:09.244Z | 22.5% | 17.5% | -5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:23:16.276Z | 17.5% | 17.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:23:41.474Z | 17.5% | 100.0% | +82.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:25:26.225Z | 22.5% | 22.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:25:57.090Z | 22.5% | 100.0% | +77.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:26:10.635Z | 22.5% | 100.0% | +77.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:27:09.847Z | 22.5% | 22.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:27:28.298Z | 22.5% | 22.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:29:00.290Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:29:18.610Z | 17.5% | 100.0% | +82.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:30:10.204Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:30:19.217Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:31:09.363Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:32:09.056Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:33:09.483Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:34:09.324Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 48.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 49.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 48.0%, gross edge 52.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.