VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +48.33 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 3.5%
Aug 05, 05:00 PMAug 05, 05:04 PMAug 05, 05:09 PMAug 05, 05:14 PMAug 05, 05:19 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T17:02:10.439Z | 47.5% | 100.0% | +52.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:03:09.300Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:03:24.210Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:04:09.264Z | 55.5% | 47.5% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:04:18.360Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:04:31.616Z | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:04:57.340Z | 55.5% | 100.0% | +44.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:05:09.691Z | 55.5% | 100.0% | +44.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:06:09.185Z | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:06:27.162Z | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:07:09.116Z | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:07:52.126Z | 55.5% | 100.0% | +44.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:08:10.125Z | 55.5% | 100.0% | +44.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:09:26.578Z | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:09:28.703Z | 34.5% | 55.5% | +21.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:09:38.682Z | 34.5% | 34.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:10:09.453Z | 34.5% | 34.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:10:49.016Z | 34.5% | 100.0% | +65.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:11:09.372Z | 34.5% | 100.0% | +65.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:12:09.527Z | 34.5% | 34.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:12:19.398Z | 34.5% | 34.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:13:56.148Z | 16.5% | 100.0% | +83.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:14:09.298Z | 3.5% | 100.0% | +96.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:14:15.866Z | 34.5% | 100.0% | +65.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:15:09.520Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:15:33.539Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:16:09.469Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:17:09.562Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:18:09.125Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:19:09.680Z | 0.0% | 3.5% | +3.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 49.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 48.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 49.0%, gross edge 50.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 48.7%. Marx fair UP is 99.9%.