Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.20 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY41.6%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+5.20 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.4%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 05, 10:34 PMAug 05, 10:38 PMAug 05, 10:41 PMAug 05, 10:45 PMAug 05, 10:49 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T22:34:37.699Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
2026-08-05T22:45:23.486Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T22:49:09.775Z0.0%0.1%+0.1 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 41.6% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 8.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.7%. Marx fair UP is 40.1%.