Ethereum Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +42.16 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY94.4%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+42.16 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-86.9%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 2.5%Marx Fair UP 2.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Aug 05, 05:30 AMAug 05, 05:34 AMAug 05, 05:39 AMAug 05, 05:43 AMAug 05, 05:48 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T05:32:04.482Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:32:20.013Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:32:32.268Z44.5%99.0%+54.5 pp
2026-08-05T05:33:04.538Z44.5%99.0%+54.5 pp
2026-08-05T05:34:13.845Z13.5%44.5%+31.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:34:20.875Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:34:32.818Z44.5%98.8%+54.3 pp
2026-08-05T05:34:33.742Z44.5%98.8%+54.3 pp
2026-08-05T05:35:04.577Z10.5%98.8%+88.3 pp
2026-08-05T05:36:05.816Z9.5%98.8%+89.3 pp
2026-08-05T05:38:05.002Z9.5%9.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:38:16.950Z9.5%9.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:39:06.554Z9.5%9.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:40:04.533Z13.5%13.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:40:21.019Z13.5%13.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:40:33.362Z13.5%100.0%+86.5 pp
2026-08-05T05:41:04.561Z13.5%100.0%+86.5 pp
2026-08-05T05:42:04.610Z13.5%13.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:42:11.011Z13.5%13.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:42:33.852Z13.5%100.0%+86.5 pp
2026-08-05T05:43:06.691Z13.5%100.0%+86.5 pp
2026-08-05T05:44:04.530Z13.5%13.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:44:11.324Z13.5%13.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:44:32.090Z13.5%100.0%+86.5 pp
2026-08-05T05:45:04.694Z0.1%100.0%+99.9 pp
2026-08-05T05:46:04.498Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:46:30.837Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:47:04.462Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:48:04.575Z2.5%2.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:48:31.211Z2.5%2.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 94.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 42.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 44.4%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 42.2%. Marx fair UP is 94.4%.

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +42.16 pp Edge | AntiPredict