Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +42.16 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY94.4%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+42.16 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-86.9%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 2.5%Marx Fair UP 2.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0.0%1.3%2.5%3.8%5.0%
Aug 05, 05:48 AMAug 05, 05:48 AMAug 05, 05:48 AMAug 05, 05:48 AMAug 05, 05:48 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T05:48:31.211Z2.5%2.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 94.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 42.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 44.4%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 42.2%. Marx fair UP is 94.4%.