Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.69 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY99.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.69 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.4%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP -
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%
Aug 02, 07:28 PMAug 02, 07:28 PMAug 02, 07:28 PMAug 02, 07:28 PMAug 02, 07:28 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-02T19:28:12.830Z0.5%-—
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 99.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 48.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.7%. Marx fair UP is 99.9%.