VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.69 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 71.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 02, 07:15 PMAug 02, 07:19 PMAug 02, 07:22 PMAug 02, 07:26 PMAug 02, 07:29 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02T19:15:39.275Z | 50.5% | 48.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-02T19:16:43.704Z | 48.0% | 48.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T19:18:00.151Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-02T19:21:32.472Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T19:22:17.962Z | 59.5% | 50.5% | -9.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T19:23:41.566Z | 59.5% | 100.0% | +40.5 pp |
| 2026-08-02T19:27:54.816Z | 59.5% | 59.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T19:28:12.830Z | 0.5% | 59.5% | +59.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T19:28:57.139Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T19:29:31.494Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 48.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.7%. Marx fair UP is 99.9%.