VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+46.75 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.4%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%

Aug 02, 06:49 PMAug 02, 06:53 PMAug 02, 06:56 PMAug 02, 07:00 PMAug 02, 07:03 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-02T18:49:30.021Z	49.5%	100.0%	+50.5 pp
2026-08-02T18:49:34.605Z	5.5%	100.0%	+94.5 pp
2026-08-02T18:54:18.932Z	24.5%	24.5%	-0.0 pp
2026-08-02T18:55:39.212Z	5.5%	5.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-02T18:55:44.900Z	0.1%	5.5%	+5.5 pp
2026-08-02T18:58:33.712Z	5.5%	100.0%	+94.5 pp
2026-08-02T19:02:29.537Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-02T19:02:34.905Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-02T19:03:56.218Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.