Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +43.71 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%53.7% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.4%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+43.71 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN80.5%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%
Aug 01, 09:58 AMAug 01, 09:58 AMAug 01, 09:58 AMAug 01, 09:58 AMAug 01, 09:58 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-01T09:58:27.043Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-08-01T09:58:39.053Z0.1%0.0%-0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 53.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 43.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.7%, gross edge 46.6%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 43.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.4%.