VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +43.71 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Aug 01, 09:45 AMAug 01, 09:49 AMAug 01, 09:54 AMAug 01, 09:59 AMAug 01, 10:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T09:45:06.422Z | 49.5% | 0.2% | -49.3 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:45:40.071Z | 48.5% | 0.2% | -48.3 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:46:07.427Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:46:22.489Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:47:10.403Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:48:09.537Z | 48.5% | 0.0% | -48.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:49:01.804Z | 48.5% | 0.0% | -48.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:51:12.535Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:52:42.064Z | 6.0% | 5.5% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:52:42.645Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:53:50.201Z | 46.5% | 46.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:53:56.735Z | 6.0% | 46.5% | +40.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:55:25.009Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:56:53.688Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:56:55.089Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:58:27.043Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:58:39.053Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T10:00:21.604Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T10:02:45.843Z | 0.1% | 0.5% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T10:04:23.292Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 53.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 43.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.7%, gross edge 46.6%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 43.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.4%.