Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.27 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY58.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+5.27 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 80.5%Marx Fair UP 80.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 01, 09:48 PMAug 01, 09:48 PMAug 01, 09:48 PMAug 01, 09:48 PMAug 01, 09:48 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-01T21:48:35.034Z80.5%80.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 58.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 7.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.3%. Marx fair UP is 58.5%.