VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +40.15 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 31, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 31, 01:45 PMJul 31, 01:49 PMJul 31, 01:53 PMJul 31, 01:57 PMJul 31, 02:01 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T13:45:45.863Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:46:55.219Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:47:59.079Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:48:19.335Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:49:29.243Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:50:34.265Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:53:04.972Z | 11.5% | 3.5% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:54:58.917Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:56:34.373Z | 1.5% | 3.5% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:56:34.679Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:56:41.496Z | 21.5% | 3.5% | -18.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:57:43.690Z | 1.5% | 21.5% | +20.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:57:44.149Z | 21.5% | 21.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:58:55.120Z | 1.5% | 0.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:59:25.785Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T14:01:57.542Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T14:01:58.319Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 57.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 40.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 57.6%, gross edge 43.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 40.1%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.