VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.63 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 31, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.1%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+46.63 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 59.5%

Jul 31, 08:19 AMJul 31, 08:19 AMJul 31, 08:19 AMJul 31, 08:19 AMJul 31, 08:19 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-31T08:19:05.380Z	59.5%	59.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T08:19:05.814Z	100.0%	59.5%	-40.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.6 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 48.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.6%. Marx fair UP is 0.1%.