Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.63 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 31, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.1%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.63 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 59.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 31, 08:01 AMJul 31, 08:05 AMJul 31, 08:10 AMJul 31, 08:14 AMJul 31, 08:19 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-31T08:01:07.808Z54.5%54.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T08:01:31.349Z54.5%54.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T08:01:39.350Z54.5%54.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T08:02:30.164Z54.5%0.0%-54.5 pp
2026-07-31T08:02:44.212Z63.5%0.0%-63.5 pp
2026-07-31T08:04:05.437Z63.5%63.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T08:04:39.527Z63.5%63.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T08:06:07.150Z63.5%0.0%-63.5 pp
2026-07-31T08:06:16.049Z63.5%0.0%-63.5 pp
2026-07-31T08:14:01.756Z55.5%100.0%+44.5 pp
2026-07-31T08:14:11.993Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T08:16:07.494Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T08:17:12.338Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T08:17:23.152Z59.5%100.0%+40.5 pp
2026-07-31T08:19:05.380Z59.5%59.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T08:19:05.814Z100.0%59.5%-40.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 48.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.6%. Marx fair UP is 0.1%.

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.63 pp Edge | AntiPredict