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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +49.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY47.5%48.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+49.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 30, 07:30 PMJul 30, 07:35 PMJul 30, 07:40 PMJul 30, 07:44 PMJul 30, 07:49 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T19:30:48.539Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:32:01.265Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:32:27.040Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:33:36.634Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:34:11.679Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:35:27.609Z54.5%54.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:35:54.338Z54.5%54.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:37:31.476Z21.5%100.0%+78.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:38:20.320Z54.5%100.0%+45.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:38:26.868Z34.5%100.0%+65.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:39:24.426Z32.5%34.5%+2.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:39:44.546Z34.5%34.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:40:03.667Z32.5%32.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:40:27.490Z32.5%32.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:41:36.361Z32.5%100.0%+67.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:41:38.344Z32.5%100.0%+67.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:42:23.965Z32.5%32.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:42:55.014Z32.5%32.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:43:29.541Z32.5%32.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:44:27.923Z32.5%100.0%+67.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:44:29.635Z32.5%100.0%+67.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:45:22.813Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:45:51.219Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:46:22.917Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:47:24.993Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:48:28.955Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:49:24.277Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 47.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 48.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 49.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 48.0%, gross edge 52.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +49.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict