VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +7.92 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 52.2%
Jul 30, 06:30 PMJul 30, 06:35 PMJul 30, 06:39 PMJul 30, 06:43 PMJul 30, 06:48 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T18:31:47.144Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:32:02.601Z | 58.5% | 62.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:32:25.899Z | 58.5% | 62.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:33:22.735Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:33:34.484Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:34:04.571Z | 58.5% | 62.1% | +3.6 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:34:26.098Z | 58.5% | 62.1% | +3.6 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:35:40.968Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:36:04.842Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:37:12.041Z | 29.5% | 57.7% | +28.2 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:37:41.820Z | 12.5% | 57.7% | +45.2 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:37:42.801Z | 29.5% | 57.7% | +28.2 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:38:35.096Z | 12.5% | 12.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:39:17.404Z | 12.5% | 12.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:39:23.538Z | 12.5% | 12.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:39:31.710Z | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:39:47.695Z | 12.5% | 12.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:40:27.855Z | 12.5% | 35.5% | +23.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:40:28.122Z | 5.5% | 35.5% | +30.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:41:30.955Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:41:50.812Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:42:24.703Z | 0.1% | 7.5% | +7.4 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:42:28.578Z | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:42:37.794Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:43:10.398Z | 5.5% | 41.6% | +36.1 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:44:47.567Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:46:04.969Z | 0.1% | 52.2% | +52.1 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:46:23.041Z | 0.1% | 52.2% | +52.1 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:47:23.220Z | 0.1% | 52.2% | +52.1 pp |
| 2026-07-30T18:48:22.704Z | 0.0% | 52.2% | +52.2 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 61.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 7.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.1%, gross edge 10.3%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.9%. Marx fair UP is 61.3%.