Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +7.92 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.1% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY61.3%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+7.92 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 52.2%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 30, 06:37 PMJul 30, 06:40 PMJul 30, 06:43 PMJul 30, 06:45 PMJul 30, 06:48 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T18:37:42.801Z29.5%57.7%+28.2 pp
2026-07-30T18:46:04.969Z0.1%52.2%+52.1 pp
2026-07-30T18:48:22.704Z0.0%52.2%+52.2 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 61.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 7.9 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.1%, gross edge 10.3%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.9%. Marx fair UP is 61.3%.