VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.58 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%52.2% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY40.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+5.58 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-6.1%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Jul 30, 08:58 AMJul 30, 08:59 AMJul 30, 09:00 AMJul 30, 09:01 AMJul 30, 09:03 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-30T08:58:20.087Z	15.5%	31.1%	+15.6 pp
2026-07-30T08:59:45.756Z	0.5%	31.1%	+30.6 pp
2026-07-30T09:03:12.414Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 40.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 52.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.6 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.2%, gross edge 9.0%, slippage 1.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.6%. Marx fair UP is 40.0%.