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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.58 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%52.2% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY40.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+5.58 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-6.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 30, 08:45 AMJul 30, 08:50 AMJul 30, 08:55 AMJul 30, 08:59 AMJul 30, 09:04 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T08:49:29.300Z47.5%54.5%+7.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:49:52.495Z47.5%54.5%+7.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:50:25.584Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:51:45.637Z39.5%40.6%+1.1 pp
2026-07-30T08:52:04.835Z41.5%40.6%-0.9 pp
2026-07-30T08:52:51.332Z34.5%39.5%+5.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:52:51.699Z39.5%39.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:53:24.739Z34.5%34.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:53:51.228Z34.5%34.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:54:43.354Z15.5%41.5%+26.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:54:55.442Z41.5%41.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:55:12.398Z15.5%15.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:55:28.518Z15.5%39.8%+24.3 pp
2026-07-30T08:55:52.990Z15.5%39.8%+24.3 pp
2026-07-30T08:56:42.986Z15.5%15.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:57:07.517Z15.5%15.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:57:43.124Z15.5%35.5%+20.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:57:50.397Z35.5%35.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:58:01.069Z15.5%15.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:58:20.087Z15.5%31.1%+15.6 pp
2026-07-30T08:58:47.215Z15.5%31.1%+15.6 pp
2026-07-30T08:59:45.756Z0.5%15.5%+15.0 pp
2026-07-30T09:00:00.955Z15.5%15.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T09:00:14.367Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T09:00:26.005Z0.5%24.9%+24.4 pp
2026-07-30T09:00:42.861Z0.5%24.9%+24.4 pp
2026-07-30T09:01:48.191Z0.5%24.9%+24.4 pp
2026-07-30T09:02:54.459Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T09:03:12.414Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T09:04:39.535Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 40.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 52.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.2%, gross edge 9.0%, slippage 1.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.6%. Marx fair UP is 40.0%.

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.58 pp Edge | AntiPredict