VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +15.53 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY32.2%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+15.53 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 50.5%Marx Fair UP 15.3%

Jul 30, 05:00 AMJul 30, 05:00 AMJul 30, 05:00 AMJul 30, 05:00 AMJul 30, 05:00 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-30T05:00:38.495Z	50.5%	15.3%	-35.2 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 32.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 15.5 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 17.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 15.5%. Marx fair UP is 32.2%.