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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +15.53 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY32.2%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+15.53 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 87.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 30, 05:00 AMJul 30, 05:05 AMJul 30, 05:09 AMJul 30, 05:14 AMJul 30, 05:19 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T05:00:38.495Z50.5%15.3%-35.2 pp
2026-07-30T05:01:57.704Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T05:03:01.325Z38.5%38.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T05:03:04.947Z38.5%38.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T05:03:27.530Z38.5%10.7%-27.8 pp
2026-07-30T05:04:19.580Z50.5%10.7%-39.8 pp
2026-07-30T05:04:58.520Z38.5%8.3%-30.2 pp
2026-07-30T05:05:45.806Z56.5%8.3%-48.2 pp
2026-07-30T05:05:49.660Z38.5%8.3%-30.2 pp
2026-07-30T05:12:25.139Z55.5%56.5%+1.0 pp
2026-07-30T05:12:34.145Z55.5%56.5%+1.0 pp
2026-07-30T05:12:41.690Z55.5%56.5%+1.0 pp
2026-07-30T05:12:44.065Z55.5%56.5%+1.0 pp
2026-07-30T05:13:08.152Z56.5%56.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T05:13:40.535Z55.5%55.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T05:14:08.318Z56.5%55.5%-1.0 pp
2026-07-30T05:15:05.591Z56.5%0.5%-56.0 pp
2026-07-30T05:15:07.963Z99.5%0.5%-99.0 pp
2026-07-30T05:15:58.673Z100.0%99.5%-0.4 pp
2026-07-30T05:16:08.152Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T05:16:20.451Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T05:16:53.324Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T05:17:44.802Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T05:19:04.954Z87.5%100.0%+12.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 32.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 15.5 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 17.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 15.5%. Marx fair UP is 32.2%.

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +15.53 pp Edge | AntiPredict