Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.08 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY41.7%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+5.08 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 30, 06:01 PMJul 30, 06:04 PMJul 30, 06:08 PMJul 30, 06:12 PMJul 30, 06:15 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T18:01:01.223Z50.5%87.5%+37.0 pp
2026-07-30T18:02:59.652Z50.5%89.4%+38.9 pp
2026-07-30T18:15:46.782Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 41.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.1 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 7.3%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.1%. Marx fair UP is 41.7%.