VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.07 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY58.3%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+5.07 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.2%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%

Jul 30, 11:08 PMJul 30, 11:10 PMJul 30, 11:12 PMJul 30, 11:14 PMJul 30, 11:16 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-30T23:08:01.973Z	46.5%	100.0%	+53.5 pp
2026-07-30T23:16:55.762Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 58.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.1 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 7.3%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.1%. Marx fair UP is 58.3%.