VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.69 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 29, 11:45 PMJul 29, 11:49 PMJul 29, 11:54 PMJul 29, 11:58 PMJul 30, 12:03 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T23:46:53.809Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:47:26.097Z | 42.5% | 0.1% | -42.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:47:42.897Z | 36.5% | 0.1% | -36.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:48:47.275Z | 36.5% | 36.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:48:58.226Z | 36.5% | 36.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:49:27.380Z | 36.5% | 0.0% | -36.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:49:55.258Z | 36.5% | 0.0% | -36.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:51:02.114Z | 33.5% | 33.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:51:26.432Z | 33.5% | 33.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:51:47.179Z | 33.5% | 33.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:52:51.212Z | 33.5% | 0.0% | -33.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:52:51.873Z | 33.5% | 0.0% | -33.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:53:42.445Z | 33.5% | 33.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:54:30.815Z | 33.5% | 33.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:54:42.264Z | 33.5% | 33.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:55:26.127Z | 33.5% | 0.0% | -33.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:55:45.861Z | 54.5% | 0.0% | -54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:56:42.256Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:56:59.682Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:57:17.431Z | 54.5% | 0.0% | -54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:57:43.142Z | 54.5% | 0.0% | -54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:58:42.759Z | 26.5% | 26.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:58:57.412Z | 26.5% | 26.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:59:14.939Z | 26.5% | 0.0% | -26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:59:42.600Z | 26.5% | 0.0% | -26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:00:42.741Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:00:54.238Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:01:24.064Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:01:44.272Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:03:13.054Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.