VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.69 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%52.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+45.69 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN86.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Jul 29, 11:49 PMJul 29, 11:52 PMJul 29, 11:56 PMJul 29, 11:59 PMJul 30, 12:03 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-29T23:49:27.380Z	36.5%	0.0%	-36.5 pp
2026-07-29T23:59:14.939Z	26.5%	0.0%	-26.5 pp
2026-07-29T23:59:42.600Z	26.5%	0.0%	-26.5 pp
2026-07-30T00:03:13.054Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.