VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +42.29 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 29, 07:30 PMJul 29, 07:35 PMJul 29, 07:40 PMJul 29, 07:45 PMJul 29, 07:49 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T19:33:28.035Z | 60.5% | 0.1% | -60.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:33:54.575Z | 60.5% | 0.1% | -60.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:35:04.379Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:35:04.392Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:35:45.083Z | 52.5% | 56.5% | +4.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:35:55.236Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:37:31.130Z | 31.5% | 0.0% | -31.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:37:44.709Z | 30.5% | 0.0% | -30.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:37:59.407Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:38:45.811Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:39:45.565Z | 30.5% | 0.0% | -30.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:40:17.848Z | 30.5% | 0.0% | -30.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:40:46.175Z | 13.5% | 0.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:40:57.699Z | 13.5% | 0.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:41:43.194Z | 13.5% | 13.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:41:48.188Z | 13.5% | 13.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:42:14.802Z | 13.5% | 0.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:42:43.582Z | 13.5% | 0.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:43:45.466Z | 13.5% | 0.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:43:50.569Z | 40.5% | 0.0% | -40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:44:00.273Z | 13.5% | 13.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:44:25.578Z | 13.5% | 0.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:44:45.690Z | 13.5% | 0.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:45:42.653Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:45:54.193Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:46:44.022Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:47:41.950Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:48:16.450Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:48:47.962Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:49:43.987Z | 0.0% | 0.5% | +0.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 5.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 42.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 44.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 42.3%. Marx fair UP is 5.5%.