Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +42.29 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY5.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+42.29 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN87.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 29, 07:33 PMJul 29, 07:37 PMJul 29, 07:41 PMJul 29, 07:45 PMJul 29, 07:49 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T19:33:28.035Z60.5%0.1%-60.4 pp
2026-07-29T19:37:31.130Z31.5%0.0%-31.5 pp
2026-07-29T19:40:17.848Z30.5%0.0%-30.5 pp
2026-07-29T19:42:14.802Z13.5%0.0%-13.5 pp
2026-07-29T19:48:16.450Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:49:43.987Z0.0%0.5%+0.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 5.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 42.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 44.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 42.3%. Marx fair UP is 5.5%.