VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.95 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 29, 07:00 PMJul 29, 07:05 PMJul 29, 07:10 PMJul 29, 07:15 PMJul 29, 07:19 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T19:02:51.535Z | 45.5% | 45.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:03:17.400Z | 45.5% | 98.7% | +53.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:04:05.619Z | 33.5% | 98.7% | +65.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:04:57.483Z | 33.5% | 33.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:04:57.518Z | 33.5% | 33.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:06:25.873Z | 33.5% | 90.0% | +56.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:06:38.943Z | 33.5% | 90.0% | +56.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:06:46.509Z | 13.5% | 90.0% | +76.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:06:56.237Z | 13.5% | 13.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:07:44.447Z | 13.5% | 13.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:08:42.531Z | 13.5% | 35.8% | +22.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:09:21.153Z | 13.5% | 35.8% | +22.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:09:45.684Z | 1.5% | 35.8% | +34.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:10:45.999Z | 1.5% | 1.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:10:57.124Z | 1.5% | 1.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:11:19.514Z | 1.5% | 13.1% | +11.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:11:42.128Z | 1.5% | 13.1% | +11.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:12:43.206Z | 1.5% | 1.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:12:54.024Z | 1.5% | 1.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:13:18.210Z | 1.5% | 52.3% | +50.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:13:42.380Z | 1.5% | 52.3% | +50.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:14:52.759Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:15:23.873Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:15:33.943Z | 0.1% | 70.6% | +70.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:15:44.592Z | 0.1% | 70.6% | +70.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:16:47.263Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:17:42.363Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:17:53.686Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:18:51.079Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T19:19:50.033Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 49.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.5%. Marx fair UP is 99.8%.