Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.95 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY99.2%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.95 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-77.3%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 45.5%Marx Fair UP 98.7%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 29, 07:03 PMJul 29, 07:03 PMJul 29, 07:03 PMJul 29, 07:03 PMJul 29, 07:03 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T19:03:17.400Z45.5%98.7%+53.2 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 99.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 49.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.5%. Marx fair UP is 99.8%.