Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +27.31 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY79.6%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+27.31 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-9.5%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 26.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 29, 06:30 PMJul 29, 06:31 PMJul 29, 06:32 PMJul 29, 06:33 PMJul 29, 06:34 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T18:30:24.853Z49.5%7.7%-41.8 pp
2026-07-29T18:32:19.176Z65.5%4.7%-60.8 pp
2026-07-29T18:34:22.505Z14.5%0.0%-14.5 pp
2026-07-29T18:34:57.078Z26.5%0.0%-26.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 79.6% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 27.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 29.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 27.3%. Marx fair UP is 79.6%.