VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +27.31 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 29, 06:30 PMJul 29, 06:35 PMJul 29, 06:39 PMJul 29, 06:44 PMJul 29, 06:48 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T18:33:49.601Z | 14.5% | 14.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:33:52.979Z | 14.5% | 14.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:34:22.505Z | 14.5% | 0.0% | -14.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:34:45.697Z | 20.5% | 0.0% | -20.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:34:57.078Z | 26.5% | 0.0% | -26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:36:36.070Z | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:37:46.606Z | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:37:55.394Z | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:38:44.144Z | 24.5% | 11.5% | -13.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:39:24.548Z | 24.5% | 11.5% | -13.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:39:43.727Z | 24.5% | 11.5% | -13.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:40:42.320Z | 93.5% | 11.5% | -82.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:40:51.548Z | 93.5% | 11.5% | -82.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:41:01.610Z | 93.5% | 93.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:41:26.709Z | 93.5% | 83.5% | -10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:41:43.976Z | 93.5% | 83.5% | -10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:42:44.376Z | 93.5% | 93.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:42:57.087Z | 93.5% | 93.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:43:16.811Z | 93.5% | 96.4% | +2.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:43:44.308Z | 100.0% | 96.4% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:44:05.147Z | 99.5% | 96.4% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:44:44.540Z | 100.0% | 99.5% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:44:56.323Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:45:05.465Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:45:22.132Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:45:45.669Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:46:43.911Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:47:13.470Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:47:45.336Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T18:48:50.107Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 79.6% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 27.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 29.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 27.3%. Marx fair UP is 79.6%.