Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +8.04 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY61.3%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+8.04 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 60.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 30, 03:16 PMJul 30, 03:17 PMJul 30, 03:18 PMJul 30, 03:18 PMJul 30, 03:19 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T15:16:28.125Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-07-30T15:19:44.465Z60.5%100.0%+39.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 61.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 8.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 10.3%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 8.0%. Marx fair UP is 61.3%.