VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.13 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY58.4%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+5.13 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 39.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%

Jul 30, 03:52 PMJul 30, 03:53 PMJul 30, 03:55 PMJul 30, 03:57 PMJul 30, 03:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-30T15:52:15.316Z	57.5%	100.0%	+42.5 pp
2026-07-30T15:55:48.839Z	51.5%	100.0%	+48.5 pp
2026-07-30T15:57:25.624Z	39.5%	39.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T15:58:35.413Z	39.5%	100.0%	+60.5 pp
2026-07-30T15:59:00.118Z	39.5%	100.0%	+60.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 58.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.1 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 7.4%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.1%. Marx fair UP is 58.4%.