VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +33.62 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 84.0%
Jul 29, 03:00 PMJul 29, 03:05 PMJul 29, 03:09 PMJul 29, 03:14 PMJul 29, 03:18 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T15:00:52.993Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:01:18.072Z | 56.5% | 90.5% | +34.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:01:42.586Z | 56.5% | 90.5% | +34.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:02:42.594Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:02:54.465Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:03:17.010Z | 56.5% | 97.0% | +40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:03:53.362Z | 56.5% | 97.0% | +40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:04:49.888Z | 56.5% | 97.0% | +40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:07:36.161Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:08:59.198Z | 50.5% | 70.5% | +20.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:09:10.785Z | 70.5% | 70.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:09:31.062Z | 70.5% | 70.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:09:42.364Z | 70.5% | 70.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:11:49.949Z | 70.5% | 99.9% | +29.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:11:51.271Z | 70.5% | 99.9% | +29.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:12:34.601Z | 70.5% | 70.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:12:43.452Z | 70.5% | 70.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:14:42.206Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:14:52.505Z | 84.0% | 100.0% | +16.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:15:08.632Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:15:42.255Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:16:48.370Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:16:54.240Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:17:42.415Z | 84.0% | 84.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:18:20.307Z | 84.0% | 84.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:18:49.461Z | 100.0% | 84.0% | -16.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 87.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 33.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.9%, gross edge 36.8%, slippage 0.9%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 33.6%. Marx fair UP is 87.8%.