Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +17.84 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY71.1%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+17.84 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 5.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%10.0%
Jul 30, 04:17 AMJul 30, 04:18 AMJul 30, 04:18 AMJul 30, 04:18 AMJul 30, 04:18 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T04:17:56.995Z0.1%5.0%+5.0 pp
2026-07-30T04:18:51.343Z0.0%5.0%+5.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 71.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 17.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 20.1%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 17.8%. Marx fair UP is 71.1%.