VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +51.76 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY48.5%46.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+51.76 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN109.5%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 55.5%

Jul 29, 06:47 AMJul 29, 06:51 AMJul 29, 06:55 AMJul 29, 07:00 AMJul 29, 07:04 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-29T06:47:09.285Z	48.5%	100.0%	+51.5 pp
2026-07-29T06:49:12.582Z	48.5%	100.0%	+51.5 pp
2026-07-29T06:51:13.068Z	45.5%	100.0%	+54.5 pp
2026-07-29T06:53:08.619Z	49.5%	100.0%	+50.5 pp
2026-07-29T06:56:45.582Z	44.5%	44.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T06:57:06.954Z	44.5%	100.0%	+55.5 pp
2026-07-29T06:59:59.832Z	99.5%	100.0%	+0.5 pp
2026-07-29T07:03:36.966Z	55.5%	55.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T07:04:41.463Z	100.0%	55.5%	-44.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.5%.
The executable UP entry was 46.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 51.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 46.0%, gross edge 54.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 51.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.