VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +51.76 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 55.5%
Jul 29, 06:45 AMJul 29, 06:50 AMJul 29, 06:55 AMJul 29, 06:59 AMJul 29, 07:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T06:45:50.067Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:47:09.285Z | 48.5% | 100.0% | +51.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:48:46.904Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:48:49.695Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:49:12.582Z | 48.5% | 100.0% | +51.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:49:41.312Z | 45.5% | 100.0% | +54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:50:40.720Z | 45.5% | 45.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:50:50.873Z | 45.5% | 45.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:51:13.068Z | 45.5% | 100.0% | +54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:51:40.616Z | 45.5% | 100.0% | +54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:52:43.344Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:52:51.348Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:53:08.619Z | 49.5% | 100.0% | +50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:53:39.034Z | 49.5% | 100.0% | +50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:54:40.293Z | 44.5% | 49.5% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:54:50.001Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:55:04.847Z | 44.5% | 44.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:55:08.031Z | 44.5% | 100.0% | +55.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:55:42.790Z | 44.5% | 100.0% | +55.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:56:40.239Z | 64.5% | 44.5% | -20.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:56:45.582Z | 44.5% | 44.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:57:06.954Z | 44.5% | 100.0% | +55.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:58:05.351Z | 64.5% | 100.0% | +35.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:59:07.232Z | 45.5% | 100.0% | +54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:59:59.832Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:00:18.445Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:00:53.811Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:03:16.528Z | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:03:36.966Z | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:04:41.463Z | 100.0% | 55.5% | -44.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 46.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 51.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 46.0%, gross edge 54.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 51.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.