Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +30.17 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY51.5%67.8% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+30.17 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN39.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 08:16 PMJul 28, 08:21 PMJul 28, 08:25 PMJul 28, 08:30 PMJul 28, 08:34 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T20:16:40.849Z51.5%0.0%-51.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:16:52.564Z51.5%0.0%-51.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:17:45.659Z60.5%0.0%-60.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:20:40.304Z60.5%0.0%-60.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:21:40.775Z60.5%0.0%-60.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:22:42.161Z22.5%0.0%-22.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:23:41.954Z22.5%0.0%-22.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:24:41.608Z13.5%0.0%-13.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:24:52.387Z13.5%0.0%-13.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:25:40.612Z1.5%0.0%-1.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:25:46.977Z1.5%0.0%-1.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:26:42.860Z2.5%0.0%-2.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:27:47.118Z2.5%0.0%-2.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:29:00.526Z0.4%0.0%-0.4 pp
2026-07-28T20:29:40.703Z0.4%0.1%-0.4 pp
2026-07-28T20:30:40.668Z0.4%0.1%-0.4 pp
2026-07-28T20:32:16.002Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:33:31.076Z0.4%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:33:38.873Z0.4%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:34:41.708Z0.1%0.5%+0.4 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 67.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 30.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 67.8%, gross edge 33.0%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 30.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +30.17 pp Edge | AntiPredict