Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +30.17 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY51.5%67.8% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+30.17 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN39.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 51.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 28, 08:16 PMJul 28, 08:16 PMJul 28, 08:16 PMJul 28, 08:16 PMJul 28, 08:16 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T20:16:52.564Z51.5%0.0%-51.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 67.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 30.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 67.8%, gross edge 33.0%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 30.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.